If it's a game, chances of it being this gen? Slim. Chances of it being this year? Slim. Most likely scenario? Around March next year like Oblivion was (fyi, the March release for Oblivion was still considered to be in the "launch window") or it will be announced towards the end of the year and released about a year later (December announcement for Skyrim, following November release).
No chance of it being a summer release, it's way too early, and big games don't release in the summer. Also, don'tg et your hopes up for a current gen release, a big game like that, with DLC future to consider is not going to release on a platform which is this close to the end of its cycle. It would be business disaster.
I also can't see it being a launch day title as it's going to be multiplatform, and I don't think Bethesda want to piss off either PS or Xbox fans by releasing on one and not the other. It'll more likely wait until both new consoles are released and have had a few months to get installed into homes before they release the game.
I'm calling a late 2014 release. It would certainly fit the release pattern for Bethesda games anyway.
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