Had a long chat with a buddy of mine about this recently and we concluded that we just had no idea what could come up. The key piece of information is that Microsoft's time slot for the reveal is only an hour long, Sony used 2 for the PS4, so the 360 one is going to be much more streamlined. We agreed that Microsoft would be stupid to focus too heavily on hardware details, Kinect and them multimedia side of things. People know that Microsoft have a hard-on for the multimedia now, the last few years they never really needed to focus on games as they had a decent games library to work with that was already established, so they worked on the multimedia, getting it to be part of the package that people buy into for the future. Well, now is the beginning of that future, people know about the multimedia, what they want now is games, in the space of one hour, they can't get through everything, but they CAN have a great showing for games, which is what they need the most.
The question is, what will they show? This is where we got stuck, we couldn't think of anything at all. Perhaps a Forza, perhaps a new Fable, but Halo? Naah, it's too early for Halo, plus Halo doesn't have the draw it used to, its getting stale. Gears of War? Again, no, too early, plus there's a chance GoW may not make the transition to next gen anyway, it's had its run this generation, 4 games, I can see people being somewhat bored of it.
So, what could it be? Our opinion is that they need a big game and a big name that will wow people, something that can really show the new hardware at work, but it needs to be an in house game, it can't be a 3rd party game as that raises questions of Microsofts ability to create new first party IPs. I could only think of 3 possibilities, a new FPS IP, a game like Heavy Rain that can really show off the graphical quality and...Crackdown. It seems an odd suggestion, but a LOT of people love Crackdown and want to see it make a proper, real return, not that half assed joke of a game Crackdown 2 was. The advantage with Crackdown is that it is a recognized name that is first party and not over exposed, as a headline next gen game it has the potential to show off a lot of what the new hardware con do, it can, in short, look spectacular and would score a lot of points for MS.
Do I actually think it WILL turn up? No, but I can't think of what WILL, and Crackdown suits the needs of MS for a headline release game, so I'm going with that.
Also, Edwin, go and slap yourself very hard. Forced 3rd person for Fallout, what an insidious, offensive suggestion. I don't dispute they need to get an engine that can handle both 1st and 3rd person, but making it 3rd person is to fundamentally change the signature of these Bethesda games. They're first person open world RPGs, that's what they are, changing that is insane.
One. Warrior. Nation.